Published On: September 18th, 2026Categories: Trade Ideas
Political risk is returning as a market variable, and France has become Europe’s most immediate pressure point. The OAT-Bund spread recently crossed 100bp for the first time in 14 years, as weak growth, fiscal deterioration and political fragmentation reinforce one another. France is not an isolated case. Rising polarization across Europe and the US is making fiscal consolidation, structural reform and policy continuity increasingly difficult. Our latest flash report examines what this means for sovereign spreads, yield curves, banks and fixed-income investors – and where greater political-risk dispersion may also create opportunities.
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