Colombia’s presidential election has entered a decisive phase following a first-round result that significantly increased the probability of a political shift. In our latest flash report, we assess the key scenarios ahead of the June 21 runoff between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda, discuss the implications for Colombia’s macroeconomic outlook and financial markets, and revisit the investment case for Ecopetrol. We continue to view Ecopetrol as one of the potential beneficiaries of a more market-friendly policy environment and maintain the issuer on our Selected Bond List. The report also includes a scenario analysis of the runoff, an overview of Colombia’s macroeconomic backdrop, and an assessment of the opportunities and risks facing both the sovereign and its flagship corporate issuer.
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